“They are building so much — it will all collapse soon.” I have heard this about Dubai since 2010. Let’s calmly look at what is really happening with supply in 2026 and where the real risks are.
In shortAround 56,600 homes are due for completion in Dubai in 2026, the most since 2008, but that does not mean a price crash. Actual handovers lag plans, the population keeps growing, and new apartment launches fell by 58%. The risks are local: new areas where thousands of similar apartments complete at once.
How much is being built
Colliers forecasts about 56,600 homes to be completed in Dubai in 2026; Cushman & Wakefield Core gives a similar figure of 55,600. That is the largest volume since 2008. In the first half of the year 24,800 homes were already handed over, 38% more than a year earlier.
Why this is no reason to panic
First: plans and reality are different things. In the first half of 2026 only about 41% of planned units were actually delivered. Developers push back deadlines, and real completions are almost always lower than announced.
Second: the city is growing. In the first half of 2026 alone, Dubai issued more than 1 million new residence permits. The emirate’s population has already passed 4 million. New residents need somewhere to live.
Third: new launches have dropped sharply. In the first half of the year apartment project launches were 58% lower than a year earlier, villa launches 78% lower. So in 3–4 years supply will thin out.
Where the risks are real
Pressure on prices will be local, not market-wide. More than 80% of future supply is apartments, concentrated in certain new areas. Where thousands of similar apartments are handed over at once, rentals may slow and resale may become harder.
But villas in established areas and apartments in places with ready infrastructure are hardly exposed to this pressure.
What I advise
- Look not at the city as a whole but at the specific area: how much will be handed over there in the next two years.
- Don’t buy a “same as everyone” apartment in a mass new complex without a clear advantage.
- If you buy off-plan, allow for handover delays.
The Dubai market is moving into a more balanced phase. This is not a fall, but the end of a time when everything went up.
If you want to check a specific property for supply risks, leave a request and we will take a look.
Figures as of September 2026. Sources: Colliers, Cushman & Wakefield Core, Cavendish Maxwell (completions and launches), GDRFA Dubai (residence permits, H1 2026).
