Every month I review the Dubai Land Department data in my Telegram channel «Деловой Дубай». Here I have put together the overall picture of 2026: what happened, what is happening now and what I expect next.
In shortDubai’s property market in 2026 is maturing, not falling. After a record 2025 (AED 917 billion in deals), spring brought fewer large deals but almost the same number of transactions. ValuStrat’s index in August was about 3% below a year earlier: a pause after years of growth, not a crash.
A strong start
2025 was a historic year for Dubai: property transactions exceeded AED 917 billion. And 2026 started on the same wave. According to the Land Department, total transactions in the first quarter reached AED 252 billion, 31% more than a year earlier. Foreign investment grew by 26%.
The storm
Spring and early summer were difficult. Regional tensions, logistics disruptions, fewer tourists — businesses had a hard time and many saw sales fall. In June the UAE Central Bank cut its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.7%. For comparison, the economy grew by more than 6% in 2025.
But an important detail: the Central Bank sees the slowdown as temporary and expects 9.8% growth in 2027, driven by the recovery of the oil sector, government investment and infrastructure projects.
What the summer months showed
In June transaction value fell to AED 34.35 billion from AED 49.83 billion in April. But the number of transactions barely changed: 14,304 against 14,525. There were no fewer buyers, just fewer large and expensive deals. The average ticket fell from about AED 3.4 million to 2.4 million.
August, as expected, brought a seasonal cool-down: the hottest month and peak holiday season. Transaction value was AED 29.17 billion, almost 18% less than in July. Yet big capital proved more resilient: land deals fell only 5% and whole-building deals 7%.
My conclusion
I do not see stagnation in these numbers. I see a market that is maturing. Demand holds, but buyers have become more selective, and large investors are shifting towards fundamental assets — land and whole buildings.
Prices have barely changed over the year: by ValuStrat’s valuation index they were about 3% lower in August than a year earlier, while asking prices are holding near their previous level. After years when prices rose 20% a year, this is a pause, not a crash. For a professional investor this is a healthy scenario: less hype, more opportunities to buy wisely.
The autumn business season is traditionally the most active. Barring another “black swan”, I expect a pick-up.
If you want to understand how this picture affects your particular purchase, leave a request and we will look at your situation.
Data as of September 2026. Sources: Dubai Land Department, Government of Dubai (2025 results), UAE Central Bank (quarterly review, June 2026), ValuStrat (price index, August 2026).
