Oil demand will continue to grow in 2026, fueled by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and the construction of data centers. The statement was made on Monday by UAE Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi. The forecast came shortly after OPEC+ members decided to pause their planned production increases for the first quarter of next year amid fears of oversupply. For those following UAE real estate news today Dubai, the country’s energy strategy directly affects regional economic stability and investor confidence.
When asked about a potential oil surplus in 2026, Al Mazrouei was clear: all current indicators point to continued demand growth. The UAE is among eight OPEC+ nations that agreed to increase production in December but froze their first-quarter expansion plans, opting for a cautious approach to market share recovery. New Western sanctions against Russia have complicated the landscape, making it difficult for Moscow to boost output after the US and UK imposed restrictions on Rosneft and Lukoil.
Investment in energy as a prerequisite for growth
Al Mazrouei emphasized that OPEC+ seeks balance, but such equilibrium is impossible without new investments. Artificial intelligence and data centers require enormous power capacity, which must be secured in advance. The minister outlined three key conditions for sustainable energy development:
- A favorable environment for capital investment in the energy sector
- A balance between energy prices and market needs
- Guarantees of sufficient investment inflows to meet rising demand
Without these factors, the industry risks a capacity shortfall just as the technology sector’s power requirements reach record highs.
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber added that volatility has become the new normal due to geopolitical uncertainty, but long-term demand remains robust. Global oil consumption, he said, will stay above 100 million barrels per day beyond 2040. While short-term challenges may arise, long-term prospects point to rising demand for all forms of energy across global markets.
Read also: UAE allocates $100 million in humanitarian aid to Sudan.
Gas turbine shortages becoming a bottleneck
Al Jaber highlighted a critical issue: electricity demand is set to surge through 2040 as data centers expand, but a shortage of gas turbines is creating a bottleneck, pushing power prices higher. To meet growing needs in grids, data infrastructure, and power generation, over USD 4 trillion in annual capital investment is required.
The ADNOC chief noted that capital is available but needs de-risking mechanisms. Proper financial structures are necessary to channel funds where they are most needed. He also urged unlocking “sleeping capital” tied up in existing energy infrastructure to fund new projects.
Balancing cost discipline with capital investment remains a key challenge. ADNOC’s international investment arm, XRG, continues to explore opportunities across the entire gas value chain.
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Statements from the minister and ADNOC’s leadership outline the UAE’s strategy for the coming years. The country does not intend to increase production aggressively at the risk of destabilizing prices, yet it also aims to capture the growing energy demand driven by the technology sector. The main areas of projected growth include:
- Data centers supporting artificial intelligence processing
- Expansion of electrical grids to meet new demand
- Industrial facilities with high energy consumption
- Cooling systems amid rising regional temperatures
For investors examining the Dubai inheritance tax framework (in practice, there is none), the region’s energy stability remains a decisive factor in property investment decisions. The government’s confidence in sustained oil demand ensures steady fiscal revenues and ongoing large-scale infrastructure projects, which continue to support property values and strengthen Dubai’s position as an attractive hub for global capital.
